Giles and Paula's Great Retirement Adventure
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Back to the drawing board…...
The current owner has (what we think are) unreasonable price expectations. He may actually be correct as Nordhavn's are selling for substantial premiums over what they were achieving pre-Covid.
But the bottom-line is we can't go as high as he expects. And that is even before we sort out any tax issues...
Onwards and upwards....
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He may actually be correct as Nordhavn's are selling for substantial premiums over what they were achieving pre-Covid.
The blasted COVID-related price increases drive me mad. While this may be a dead end, I feel certain that there's a better (and more reasonably-priced) boat in your future.
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He may actually be correct as Nordhavn's are selling for substantial premiums over what they were achieving pre-Covid.
The blasted COVID-related price increases drive me mad. While this may be a dead end, I feel certain that there's a better (and more reasonably-priced) boat in your future.
That's what Phil the Nordhavn Europe agent just said…...
Hi Giles,
Understand, but we keep going! Whether that’s plan B or beyond we will find a solution!
Best
P -
My heart sank for you reading this tonight. as Phil said now to plan B and beyond.
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I spent some time (obviously
) intellectualising this last night. If the guy who is selling Plan A is correct in his view of the current market, then the problem is wider than just his boat. He wants 35% more for the boat than he bought it for in 2017, if he puts it on the open market, then this becomes the new norm. There is another Nordhavn 52 of the same age and similar spec that Phil thinks may become available, but how can he advise the owners on Plan B to put theirs on for 35% less than Plan A?When P and I came up with this dream, we realised that to some extent what the initial capital outlay was, was not the driving factor (obviously as long as we have the liquidity to fund the purchase price), what was more relevant was what the depreciation of the boat would be over our period of ownership. Even if we could afford a 35% premium over what they were selling for pre-covid (which we can't) we would likely be buying at the height of the market, so the expected depreciation would be a lot more.
The two possible upsides are 1) The guy who owns Plan A does not want to sell until the end of the year (which fiscally works in our favour, as the money from the sale of Iron Heart comes in annual tranches), so the "new norm" is not generally known until later this year, or 2) He puts it on the market now, and it the asking prices has to be repeatedly reduced until it reaches a (possible) much lower market price…..
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It is insane to me that a depreciating asset like a boat would command a premium over its original purchase price. Maybe that's the world we live in now, but it doesn't feel right and it would most certainly give me pause even without affordability in the equation.
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The big dilemma for me is wondering how long this is all sustainable. Yes, money is cheap right now as low as interest rates are but as governments are already utilizing the most powerful tool it has to combat a declining economy, how long is this sustainable? Unfortunately, most people I know live beyond their means and are mostly at the limit of their income to debt ratios. I may have a more contrarian view of the economy than most but I just don't see the status quo lasting for more than a few years. What happens when people who bought toys (boats, planes, vacation homes) begin defaulting on these loans once the global economy goes tits up? I'd much rather weather the storm for the next few years, maintain as minimal debt load as possible and maintain a cash heavy position to wait out until people are so underwater on luxury items that they opt to simply walk away and let the banks repossess them. As the saying goes, "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
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I’ve seen this with guitars — a couple of vintage ones I own were steadily creeping up in value before tanking in the midst of the 08 fallout. Then they crept back up, and pretty slowly… before going absolutely crazy over the past couple years.
I’ve thought so many times that this is unsustainable, and that there will be a financial day of reckoning of some kind. People are certainly living beyond their means — I sold a $350 guitar pedal to a guy for $900 because it was discontinued and he thought he had to have it. He said he was actually borrowing to buy it. That’ll catch up to people.
But also, people often ask way more than they actually end up getting, a very pervasive MO these days. So that could be good news for Giles.
At the end of the day, the only thing I know is that people are insane.
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I hope that you all don't mind me using this as a dumping ground for my thoughts. If you do, you can just "ignore" the thread.
I think that given the apparent state of the Nordhavn market at the moment, holding out for what we want, at a decent price before we are actually unable to climb on board, maybe a hiding to nothing….
We don't want to buy another make of large trawler at what is possibly the height of the market, 1) because when we get rid, the downside is large, 2) I don't want to own a large, second grade (to my mind) boat and hanker after a Nordhavn whenever I'm on it, so we think we will buy something smaller, and at the same time put a deposit on a new Nordhavn.
That way, we can get started, learn what we are doing and have some fun, albeit in a different way.
When we get back from LA next week, we are going to look at this little guy...
A 2008 Nordic Tug 37'
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I hope that you all don't mind me using this as a dumping ground for my thoughts.
It's nice to feel a part of the journey! That tug looks like a rad interim solution should you opt for placing the deposit on a new Nordhavn. What would be the wait time for the build out?
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What would be the wait time for the build out?
No frigging' idea, that's part of why we think that what we are doing is a good route….
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